http://goldforex.forumco.com/Gold Forexhttp://goldforex.forumco.com/rss.gifhttp://www.goldforex.org/http://goldforex.forumco.com/rss.gif8637TLenykhttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129510Fri, 21 Nov 2008 13:50:47 +0100
Fundamental economic factors have become increasingly important market movers. When focusing on the impact that economic numbers have on price in the FX market there are 5 top indicators to watch. These indicators that we are about to discuss have a strong effect to generate volume and to move prices in the market.

Economic News Impacts The Short-Term Trading and The Long-Term.

The data itself is not as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations. Besides knowing when all the data is released, it is vitally important to know what economists are forecasting for each indicator. For example, knowing the economic consequences of an unexpected monthly rise in the Consumer Price Index. The actual, is not nearly as vital to your short-term trading decisions as it is to know that this month the market was looking for CPI to fall.

Analyzing the longer-term ramifications of an unexpected monthly rise in prices can wait until after you've taken advantage of the short term trading opportunities. Market expectations for all economic factors are public knowledge. You should be tracking these economic data indicators on an economic or forex calendar.

1.Payroll \ Unemployment

Strong job creation is a good indication of economic growth, as companies must increase their workforce in order to meet demand The unemployment rate is also a good measure of the strength of the labor market. One of the ways analysts gauge the strength of an economy is by the number of jobs created, and the percentage of workers unable to find jobs.

2. The Discount Rate \ FOMC Interest Rate Decisions

The Federal Open Market sets the discount rate, which is the rate at which the Federal Reserve Bank charges member banks for overnight loans. The rate is set during the FOMC meetings by the regional banks and the Federal Reserve Board. Lets take a further look at these two factors.

The discount rate is an interest rate a central bank charges depository institutions that borrow reserves from it. For example, the German Bundesbank offered a discount rate up to 1999 until interest rate policy was transferred to the European Central Bank.
A depository institution is a financial institution in the United States, such as a savings bank, that is legally allowed to accept monetary deposits from consumers. Federal depository institutions are regulated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
An example of a non-depository institution might be a mortgage bank. While licensed to lend, they cannot accept deposits.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a component of the Federal Reserve System, is charged under U.S. law with overseeing open market operations in the United States, and is the principal tool of US national monetary policy(Open market operations are the buying and selling of government securities.) The Committee sets monetary policy by specifying the short-term objective for those operations, which is currently a target level for the federal funds rate (the rate that commercial banks charge on overnight loans among themselves). The FOMC also directs operations undertaken by the Federal Reserve System in foreign exchange markets, although any intervention in foreign exchange markets is coordinated with the U.S. Treasury, which has responsibility for formulating U.S. policies regarding the exchange value of the dollar.

There are 8 meetings scheduled per year. The dates are known in advance so mark them on your economic calendar and incorporate them into your forex trading strategies.

3. Trade Balance

The balance of trade measures the difference between the value of goods and services that a nation exports and the value of goods and services that it imports. A trade surplus results if the value of exported goods exceeds that of imported goods, whereas a trade deficit exists if imported goods exceed exported goods.

Generally this information is released around the middle of the second month following the reporting period. Again this should be apart of your trading strategies.

4. CPI – Consumer Price Index

The CPI is a key gauge of inflation, as it measures the price of a fixed group of consumer goods. Higher prices are considered negative for an economy, but since central banks often respond to price inflation by raising interest rates, currencies sometimes respond positively to reports of higher inflation. Below is a further explanation of CPI.

A consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is one of several price indices calculated by national statistical agencies. The percent change in the CPI is a measure of inflation. The CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effects of inflation) wages, salaries, pensions, or regulated or contracted prices. The CPI is, along with the population census and the National Income and Product Accounts, one of the most closely watched national economic statistics.

This information is released monthly.

5. Retail Sales

Retail sales is a measure of the total goods sold by a sampling of retail stores. It is used as a gauge of consumer activity and confidence as higher sales figures would indicate increased economic activity.

This information is released monthly

Happy trading.
http://www.forex-money-exchange.com
]]>forexgreenlandhttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?whichpage=-1&TOPIC_ID=1284&REPLY_ID=165710Fri, 21 Nov 2008 03:39:46 +0100ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129410Thu, 20 Nov 2008 02:06:52 +0100Free Webinar

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Thursday Nov, 20th

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Forex Analysis - Daily

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD starts weaker, stops drive majors higher
• Upside resistance holds and the majors drop hard
• Volumes high on the move


Overnight Preview

• Look for the USD to follow-on higher early overnight
• Should get quiet ahead of US data


Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 2:00pm USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks


Summary
After early US data was unfriendly to the USD and the greenback suffered losses the USD roared back from lows and scored new highs against most major pairs in mid-day trade. Traders note that stops above the major pairs gave early strength a boost but once the buying dried up the majors reversed hard and fell back into lows. GBP failed to challenge overnight lows at 1.4903 but dropped to the low 1.5000 handle making for a hard reversal from the high prints at 1.5252. Traders note that semi-official selling and potential sovereigns near the highs likely turned the rally back. EURO suffered a harder turn as high prints at 1.2815 on high volume were turned back and the rate made new lows on the day at 1.2545 before regaining the 1.2600 handle in late trade. Both EURO and GBP appeared to be tracking each other suggesting that the move was a coordinated short-squeeze before falling back. Traders also note that volumes were high in both pairs and that stops did attract new buying but once the opening ranges fell to selling pressure late longs bailed on intra-day longs. USD/CHF made early lows under the 1.2000 handle at 1.1943 before reversing; the open hook reversal was negated as the rate crossed the 1.2050 area and scored new highs at 1.2148 before falling back to the 1.2090 area. Swissy appears to be getting a lift from weakness in Oil some traders say. Equities lower on the day after erasing losses on the open gave most of the pairs additional pressure traders say and USD/JPY remained lower on the day after an early rally failed to score new highs. High prints in the rate at 97.16 went unchallenged and as equities gave up gains the rate fell into lows; low print at 96.00 was unable to trigger resting stops as other pairs had done. Late data included the FOMC minutes of the latest meeting and traders note that the minutes show no real news but the pressure on the USD to rally likely was done ahead of the news suggesting that the move may have been technical to start; once the volatility hit the market it was unlikely that news would be in focus. In my view, the upside move in the majors was due to be sold as it was the first attempt at the overhead resistance area recently broken; the speed and depth of the retracement was unexpected and no doubt will inspire additional follow-on selling overnight. Should the USD fail to follow-through with any conviction it is likely the upside bounce may be the exhaustion rally. Look for the majors to consolidate ahead of US data in the morning which again is expected to be USD unfriendly.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5300/10
Resistance 2: 1.5280
Resistance 1: 1.5250
Latest New York: 1.4975
Support 1: 1.4900
Support 2: 1.4820/30
Support 3: 1.4700


Comments
Overhead resistance around 1.5100 gives way to stops above lifting the rate to highs at 1.5250; failure and reversal suggests rate is set to rotate lower and test support around the 1.4820 area. Traders note stops above the 1.5100 handle we in size but new buying turned back. Traders also note the same names seen in size on the bid the past few days. Resistance is expected to hold rate for a pullback and aggressive traders can buy that dip if it comes. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2880
Resistance 2: 1.2850
Resistance 1: 1.2800/10
Latest New York: 1.2535
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments
Rate reverses after highs at 1.2815 area attract profit-taking by the longs and selling by the shorts; rate dips to lows into the 1.2500 handle again. Bids support to hold rate firm after whipsaw. Two-way action still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size suggesting short-term traders active; stops cleared and new buying turned back. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 48 hours with possible sell interest at the highs today. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German PPI m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129310Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:04:10 +0100Free Webinar


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Thursday Nov, 20th

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Forex Analysis - Daily


Today’s US Dollar Trading

• Two-way action due to equities
• Traders note USD feels neutral
• EURO makes lows late


Overnight Preview

• Look for more USD upside to start overnight
• Two-way action likely to continue into US tomorrow


Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Building Permits
• 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
• 8:30am USD CPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Housing Starts
• 9:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes


Summary
The USD continued in solid two-way trade today after earlier gains gave way to losses mid-day and then reversed yet again to finish better on the day against most pairs. Traders blame volatility in equities today for the whipsaw across the board as Wall Street was unable to hold gains into the end of the day. GBP rallied overnight into high prints at 1.5094 but those highs remained unchallenged in New York trade as sellers offered the rate lower more than a full handle to finish at the 1.4920 area; traders note pressure from EURO losses late in the day suggesting that the near-term lows still are under threat for additional attempts for new 2008 lows. EURO tracked equities for most of the day rallying to new US highs mid-day at 1.2701 before reversing to make new lows on the day at 1.2566 making for a slight reversal on the charts; traders in both pairs note that the same buyers seen the past few sessions were back on the dips but unable to hold gains suggests that stops will build overnight under current lows. USD/JPY had high prints on equities strength at 97.42 before reversing with stocks for a test of the lows at 96.01 but unable to trigger stops said to be resting in that area; the rate holding at 96.50 into the end of day. USD/CHF rallied in thin volume to find stops above the 1.2024 area for a new two-year high at 1.2049 and ends firm above the 1.2000 area at 1.2030; traders note that technical buying appears to be holding the rate firm as reversal signals evaporate in late trade. Weaker commodities pricing also cited for the better USD although usually that would be bearish in the rate making for difficult trade. Today’s US data was considered neutral for the Greenback and traders note that despite the volatility and two-way action today the USD feels neutral on the day suggesting that more two-way action is likely overnight. In my view, despite the late rally in the USD , the recent ranges are holding with the exception of Swissy suggesting that the majors will continue to sketch out wide trading ranges as we head into the end of the week and possibly the month. With a short week next week for the US Thanksgiving holiday expect book-squaring and liquidation of positions as traders finish the last full week of the month by Friday. Overnight the Yen crosses likely will remain in focus as lower equities have prompted Yen selling so expect more losses for the majors as they rotate back to the lows ahead of US trade.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5200/10
Resistance 2: 1.5150
Resistance 1: 1.5080
Latest New York: 1.4926
Support 1: 1.4650
Support 2: 1.4580
Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500


Comments
Overhead resistance around 1.5100 holds on first try today, tracking EURO and equities for the most part. Traders note stops above the 1.5100 handle likely building near-term. Resistance is expected to hold rate for a pullback and aggressive traders can buy that dip if it comes. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850, 1.5000, and 1.5050 areas yesterday; the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations
1:40pm GBP MPC Member Gieve Speaks


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2850
Resistance 2: 1.2800
Resistance 1: 1.2750
Latest New York: 1.2621
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400


Comments
Rate reverses after highs at 1.2700 area attract profit-taking by the longs and selling by the shorts; rate dips to lows into the 1.2500 handle and a drop to support likely overnight. Two-way action still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area or so suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 48 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
NONE

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky


DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129210Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:25:30 +0100Free Webinar!

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To sign up for Foexpros.com's latest webinar please click HERE !!!




Forex Analysis - Daily

Today's US Dollar Trading

• USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade
• Equities rally lifts EURO
• Volumes remain light


Overnight Preview

• Look for follow-on USD selling
• Two-way action likely as technical’s dominate


Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
• 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index


Summary
After starting overnight Asia better the USD reversed to continue mostly lower as US equities attempted to rally to start the week. Traders note that volumes thinned out after the London fix but the majors continued to hold gains and advance. GBP rallied into stops placed above the 1.5000/10 area for a high print at 1.5085 as stops above the 1.5050 area also were triggered; large investment house bids and sovereign bids were seen in earlier trade helping to hold the rate firm. As equities advanced into their highs EURO found additional stops above 1.2710 area for a high print at 1.2743 before backing off as equities deflated but not before two attempts at stops above the 1.2750 area were turned back. Poor economic data in the US also helped to keep the majors firm and tomorrows data is likely to remain unfriendly to the USD, traders expect additional upside pressure in both EURO and GBP after today?s upside action scored above near-term resistance. USD/JPY tracked stocks as expected and lifted to an intraday high at 97.57 before dropping back later in the day; traders note that two-way action and Yen cross spreading continue to dominate action and further losses are likely this week. Upside resistance is high above the 98.00 handle suggesting that the USD may be finding willing sellers on rallies. USD/CHF continued to hover at or near the two-year high around the 1.1950 area with thin conditions exaggerating the moves but high prints at 1.2010 went unchallenged in New York trade. In my view, the USD is setting up for a long-liquidating break near-term. Technical trade and low volumes likely have helped the Greenback hold recent gains but additional US data and overbought conditions suggests that at least a correction is due. Failure of the USD to score new highs this week make a correction to end the month more likely in my view. Aggressive traders can look to sell USD/CHF above the 1.2000 handle and sell USD/CAD above the 1.2375 area; expect volatility and always run your stops.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5200/10
Resistance 2: 1.5150
Resistance 1: 1.5080
Latest New York: 1.5028
Support 1: 1.4650
Support 2: 1.4580
Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500


Comments
Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850, 1.5000, and 1.5050 areas; the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term; expect a pullback of some kind. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2850
Resistance 2: 1.2800
Resistance 1: 1.2750
Latest New York: 1.2670
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments
Rate follows GBP higher from overnight; attempts highs late despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view?I can?t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks


Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129110Mon, 17 Nov 2008 08:20:56 +0100Click here to join us for our upcoming webinar!


Control your Forex trading Risk...or Fail Stop trading now if you do not know your initial risk of loss compared with your potential reward AND how much to risk before EVERY forex trade.

Tony Beckwith of the specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor Ltd. explains why you MUST follow the 4 Stage Process of trading with discipline and control to be profitable over the long run.


Forex Analysis - Daily

Overnight Asia/Europe

• G-20 fails to inspire the USD bulls
• Majors initially weaker then reverse into New York
• Japan data benign


Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 9:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
• 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate
• 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m


Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
• 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index


Summary
Disappointment from the weekend G-20 summit in Washington gave USD bulls a slight advantage in early Asian trade but the Greenback is off marginally against the majors by the start of New York trade. Initially expecting strong rhetoric or even an agreement of some kind to give traders a reason to believe the credit crisis will be resolved quickly, the statement was seen as “more of the same” by most traders. Trading down to recent support and then rallying, GBP and EURO are still inside-range to start the week. Low prints in Cable at 1.4650 encouraged a round of short-covering and traders report large investment groups on the bid as the rate rose through stops around the 1.4850 area; high prints so far at 1.4966 with the rate holding the 1.4900 handle in early trade. EURO fell to tech support at 1.2513 holding the important 1.2500 handle on the dip with light stops reported under the 1.2550 area; high prints on the recovery at 1.2702 with stops reported around the 1.;2630 area in light trade. The two-way action suggesting that both pairs are tracking each other with the main interest seen in the crosses; Yen continued to remain stronger despite the drop in Q3 GDP estimates released overnight. High prints in USD/JPY at 97.57 in Asia before profit-taking hit the rate along with exporter selling traders say; low prints at 95.92 with the rate holding firm around 96.50 in early New York. USD/CHF rallied to a new two-year high before reversing; high prints at 1.2010 with lows at 1.1886. Making yet another hook reversal on the daily charts the USD/CHF is really trying hard to find a top and aggressive traders can sell the rate over the 1.1950 area today looking for the reversal to hold. Following the Swissy higher was Loonie making a try for highs over the 1.2400 handle; high prints at 1.2426 before reversing for lows at 1.2220; the rate holding early New York a full handle off the highs at 1.2320. With a light economic calendar for the start of the week the USD is likely to continue in two-way trade with the technical’s mostly driving trade. Late buyers will likely have stops close-in suggesting some whippy action is also possible. To start the week it is apparent that the USD bulls are getting tired at current pricing; I think the potential for a long-liquidating break is building and if the USD can’t extend gains by mid-week I would look for a drop in the Greenback to end the week.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5150
Resistance 2: 1.5080
Resistance 1: 1.4990/1.5000
Latest New York: 1.4918
Support 1: 1.4650
Support 2: 1.4580
Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500


Comments
Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850 area and the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom and we saw some of that last week near the lows.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2900
Resistance 2: 1.2850
Resistance 1: 1.2820/30
Latest New York: 1.2645
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400


Comments
Rate follows GBP higher from overnight but still an inside range despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks


Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

]]>TLenykhttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=129010Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:51:50 +0100
If your goal is to catch the big profits in the forex-trading arena you will need to trend follow forex trends which are longer term. Here is a simple method. If used correctly it will help you catch major forex trends. This will lead you to a long-term currency trading success. The methods that we will be discussing are, breakouts, confirmation and stops and targets.

Most novice forex traders don’t bother trying to trend following forex longer term. They enter the market as day trading or forex scalping. These methods focus the trades on small moves and hopes of catching small profits. However as most short-term moves are random, this leads to equity wipe out.

There are other choices for trading in the forex market which are swing trading and long term forex trend following. This article is about is about long-term forex trend following. If you look at any forex chart, you will see long term trends that last for months or years. These moves can and do yield big profits. Read on for a simple method on how to catch a big profit in the forex market.

Breakouts

Trading forex breakouts is one of the more basic trading strategies, but nevertheless it can deliver excellent profits. A breakout is simply a move on a forex chart where a new high or low is made and resistance of support is broken. It is a fact that most major moves start from new highs or lows. Just because a system is easy to follow does not mean it cannot produce consistent profits. As breakout trading is a method used by some of the most successful forex traders around.

It's based around the whole premise that if a currency pair is trading in a very tight range for a sustained period of time, then eventually it will break out of that range. And more often than not it will continue moving in the direction of the breakout.
This means that to make consistent profits you need to firstly identify instances where a currency pair is trading in a narrow range, and then place buy and sell orders at or slightly outside the current range to catch the breakout when it happens.
Most traders don’t buy or sell breakouts and that’s exactly why it’s such a powerful method.

Confirmation

Of course not every breakout continues and some reverse, these are false and can cause losses. You will need to confirm each move. To achieve this you will need to put a few momentum indicators in your forex trading system to confirm your trading signal.
These indicators give an idea of the strength and velocity of price and there are many to choose from. Two of the best are stochastic and relative strength index (RSI).

Stops and Targets

Use the current trading range to determine where to place the stops so if you go long at the top of the range, then your stop loss will be at the bottom of the range. This is only really an emergency stop as most of the time the breakout will follow through and not go anywhere near this stop loss. Target prices can be the same number of points away as the stop at the very least.
You have to keep in mind that when the trend does eventually turn you are going to give some profit back. You don’t know when the trend is going to end, so don’t predict.

The best thing about this system is that it works pretty well across many different time frames, plus not only does it work well for trading forex markets but it's also an equally good system for trading other financial instruments as well.

http://www.forex-money-exchange.com


]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=128910Thu, 13 Nov 2008 06:15:40 +0100Forex Analysis - Daily

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• Thin conditions exaggerate moves, USD firms
• GBP at new six-year low
• Other pairs two-way and volatile


Overnight Preview

• Look for two-way action overnight
• USD likely to consolidate ahead of news


Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Trade Balance
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 11:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
• 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks
• 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance


Summary
Thin liquidity continued to plague traders today as USD buying at the London Fix drove the majors to fresh lows for the week and in the case of the GBP to multi-year lows. GBP is now trading at prices not seen since January of 2002 with a low print at 1.4893 before likely profit taking bids supported for a rally to the 1.5000 handle. Gains were short-lived after the noon hour as both the GBP and EURO slowly deflated to finish lower on the day. Dragged lower by GBP, EURO held above the 1.2450 area of rumored stops for a low print at 1.2466 before recovering a full handle in later trade; gains evaporated as the rate returned to the 1.2500 area in to the end of day. Traders note in both pairs that moves may have been exaggerated but the bears remain in control although EURO is holding firmer likely due to cross-spreading for Sterling which took the brunt of the moves today. USD/JPY fell as stocks retreated as has been the case dropping to a low print at 94.46 before short-covering lifted the rate a full handle back to the 95.60 area in late trade. Yen crosses again in focus the past 24 hours as the Yen appears the strongest currency on the board today; traders note that all the major Yen and Sterling pairs are suffering deep losses and volatility making for violent and difficult trade. Spillover weakness against the USD appears to be by default but the result is the same as traders hold long USD. USD/CHF fell making a hook reversal on the day for a low print at 1.1762 before recovering a full handle back to the 1.1860 area putting the bears on the defense after early topping formations are pressured. Traders note that commodity pricing and weaker stocks may be adding a bit of lift to the rate as gold and oil were lower today. Despite USD two-way action elsewhere the USD/CAD remains firm finding stops and active buying above the 1.2300 handle with tech resistance between 1.2330 and 1.2390 area offering some cap to the rate; traders note the rate has retraced a solid 50% from the recent drop and sellers are active but still plagued by thin conditions. In my view, the USD is whipsawing hard exacerbated by thin conditions and signs of topping are evident but so far the bid is still on for Greenbacks. Overseas data is light tonight but heavy in the US suggesting a round of profit-taking by the USD longs may surface tonight in Asia. Look for more two-way consolidation ahead of US data in the morning.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5800
Resistance 2: 1.5500
Resistance 1: 1.5250
Latest New York: 1.4944
Support 1: 1.4900
Support 2: 1.4810/20
Support 3: 1.4750


Comments
Selling just relentless as cross-spreaders and thin conditions find no bids; low prints at 1.4895 are a new six-year low. Some stops noted on the break of 1.5100 but absolutely no two-way action yet. Technical trade overnight, more expected tonight as well as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5500 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
NONE


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2490
Support 1: 1.2480
Support 2: 1.2420/30
Support 3: 1.2400


Comments
Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Two-way action all day despite weakness elsewhere; lows hold around weekly lows despite new low by GBP. Stops under the 1.2450 area possibly in size; rate holding 1.2500 into the close a good sign for the bulls. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on strength ahead of 1.2700 I think; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m
4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex Charts Section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.




]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=128810Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:53:21 +0100Free Training Webinar: Cutting Losses While Trading
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Wednesday, November 12th, 15:00 GMT

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Forex Analysis- Daily

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD rallies in thin conditions
• No news, likely technical trade
• Equities fall driving EURO lower


Overnight Preview

• Look for two-way action and consolidation
• Better liquidity will help with ranges

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 11:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
• 1:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks


Summary
Despite a US holiday and thin conditions the USD rallied after the start of the mostly-closed New York markets opened today; traders note that technical factors likely drove trade as the USD rose to new highs against the Swiss Franc. Rising to a new two-year high for a high print at 1.1880 conditions were dismal as traders were forced to cover back open shorts expected to be set into Wednesday. News was light as the Greenback continued to rally all day making significant highs against all pairs but still holding existing monthly ranges for the most part. EURO sank back under the 1.2600 handle in a surprise move as US equities fell back for triple-digit losses; low prints at 1.2508 making a mess of near-term balance sheets. GBP also fell in sympathy with EURO for a low print at 1.5361 finding stops under the 1.5500 handle layered all the way under 1.5400; traders note cross-spreading continued for Yen as the Yen held firm across the board. USD/JPY held earlier ranges but did drop on equities weakness for a low print at 97.30 before recovering back to trade the 98.00 handle but was unable to hold. In my view, the USD benefited today from super-thin conditions and poor liquidity driving back to test previous highs but is unlikely to hold gains. Two-way trade is likely into tomorrow and the lows from the major pairs are likely to hold at least for one try. Tomorrow’s data is likely not to be market moving at all suggesting that more technical trade is coming. Look for two-way action tonight in Asia with light follow-on buying of USD early overnight.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6320/30
Resistance 2: 1.6250
Resistance 1: 1.6100/10
Latest New York: 1.5402
Support 1: 1.5380
Support 2: 1.5280/1.5300
Support 3: 1.5220


Comments
Follow-on selling drops rate, cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure. Thin two-way action. Stops under the 1.5500 area drop rate into next support area around 1.5400. Technical trade overnight. Resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. Likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month but that might be factored in. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate
5:30am GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
5:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2535
Support 1: 1.2480
Support 2: 1.2420/30
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments
Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Stops under the 1.2600 area possibly in size. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try if a bounce from potential pennant bottom holds. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m
1:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex Charts Section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

]]>ForexAnalysishttp://goldforex.forumco.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=128710Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:18:03 +0100Coming Up :
Sharpening Your Edge Series: Cutting Losses
Wednesday, November 12th, 15:00 GMT

FREE Forex Training Webinar

* 95% of traders bust out in their first 6 months. Be the 5% who survive.

* Learn about the most common mistakes made by beginning traders and the tools and techniques which can help prevent them.

* Join in this fun and lively web based seminar simply by clicking here


Click Here To Join this Free Webinar

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